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feat!: overhaul the entire rating algorithm

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I am far, FAR too lazy to split this into multiple commits, so here it
is.
This commit is contained in:
Kiana Sheibani 2024-08-17 21:54:57 -04:00
parent c2158f85f7
commit 4b44b82531
Signed by: toki
GPG key ID: 6CB106C25E86A9F7
4 changed files with 328 additions and 648 deletions
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456
src/database.rs
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@ -1,6 +1,5 @@
use crate::queries::*;
use sqlite::*;
use std::fs::{self, OpenOptions};
use std::path::{Path, PathBuf};
pub struct DatasetMetadata {
@ -14,15 +13,14 @@ pub struct DatasetMetadata {
pub country: Option<String>,
pub state: Option<String>,
pub set_limit: u64,
pub decay_rate: f64,
pub adj_decay_rate: f64,
pub period: f64,
pub tau: f64,
pub decay_const: f64,
pub var_const: f64,
}
/// Return the path to the datasets file.
fn datasets_path(dir: &Path) -> std::io::Result<PathBuf> {
use std::fs::{self, OpenOptions};
let mut path = dir.to_owned();
// Create datasets path if it doesn't exist
@ -50,11 +48,8 @@ CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS datasets (
game_slug TEXT NOT NULL,
country TEXT,
state TEXT,
set_limit INTEGER NOT NULL,
decay_rate REAL NOT NULL,
adj_decay_rate REAL NOT NULL,
period REAL NOT NULL,
tau REAL NOT NULL
var_const REAL NOT NULL
) STRICT;
CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS players (
@ -113,11 +108,8 @@ pub fn list_datasets(connection: &Connection) -> sqlite::Result<Vec<(String, Dat
game_slug: r_.read::<&str, _>("game_slug").to_owned(),
country: r_.read::<Option<&str>, _>("country").map(String::from),
state: r_.read::<Option<&str>, _>("state").map(String::from),
set_limit: r_.read::<i64, _>("set_limit") as u64,
decay_rate: r_.read::<f64, _>("decay_rate"),
adj_decay_rate: r_.read::<f64, _>("adj_decay_rate"),
period: r_.read::<f64, _>("period"),
tau: r_.read::<f64, _>("tau"),
decay_const: r_.read::<f64, _>("decay_rate"),
var_const: r_.read::<f64, _>("adj_decay_rate"),
},
))
})
@ -157,17 +149,14 @@ pub fn new_dataset(
dataset: &str,
metadata: DatasetMetadata,
) -> sqlite::Result<()> {
let query1 = r#"INSERT INTO datasets VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?)"#;
let query1 = r#"INSERT INTO datasets VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?)"#;
let query2 = format!(
r#"CREATE TABLE "{0}_players" (
id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY REFERENCES players,
last_played INTEGER NOT NULL,
deviation REAL NOT NULL,
volatility REAL NOT NULL,
sets_won TEXT NOT NULL,
sets_won TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
sets_count_won INTEGER AS (length(sets_won) - length(replace(sets_won, ';', ''))),
sets_lost TEXT NOT NULL,
sets_lost TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
sets_count_lost INTEGER AS (length(sets_lost) - length(replace(sets_lost, ';', ''))),
sets TEXT AS (sets_won || sets_lost),
sets_count INTEGER AS (sets_count_won + sets_count_lost)
@ -177,10 +166,12 @@ CREATE TABLE "{0}_network" (
player_A INTEGER NOT NULL,
player_B INTEGER NOT NULL,
advantage REAL NOT NULL,
variance REAL NOT NULL,
last_updated INTEGER NOT NULL,
sets_A TEXT NOT NULL,
sets_A TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
sets_count_A INTEGER AS (length(sets_A) - length(replace(sets_A, ';', ''))),
sets_B TEXT NOT NULL,
sets_B TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
sets_count_B INTEGER AS (length(sets_B) - length(replace(sets_B, ';', ''))),
sets TEXT AS (sets_A || sets_B),
sets_count INTEGER AS (sets_count_A + sets_count_B),
@ -208,11 +199,8 @@ CREATE INDEX "{0}_network_B" ON "{0}_network" (player_B);"#,
.bind((7, &metadata.game_slug[..]))?
.bind((8, metadata.country.as_deref()))?
.bind((9, metadata.state.as_deref()))?
.bind((10, metadata.set_limit as i64))?
.bind((11, metadata.decay_rate))?
.bind((12, metadata.adj_decay_rate))?
.bind((13, metadata.period))?
.bind((14, metadata.tau))?
.bind((10, metadata.decay_const))?
.bind((11, metadata.var_const))?
.try_for_each(|x| x.map(|_| ()))?;
connection.execute(query2)
@ -242,11 +230,8 @@ pub fn get_metadata(
game_slug: r_.read::<&str, _>("game_slug").to_owned(),
country: r_.read::<Option<&str>, _>("country").map(String::from),
state: r_.read::<Option<&str>, _>("state").map(String::from),
set_limit: r_.read::<i64, _>("set_limit") as u64,
decay_rate: r_.read::<f64, _>("decay_rate"),
adj_decay_rate: r_.read::<f64, _>("adj_decay_rate"),
period: r_.read::<f64, _>("period"),
tau: r_.read::<f64, _>("tau"),
decay_const: r_.read::<f64, _>("decay_rate"),
var_const: r_.read::<f64, _>("var_const"),
})
})
.and_then(Result::ok))
@ -290,39 +275,46 @@ pub fn add_set(connection: &Connection, set: &SetId, event: EventId) -> sqlite::
pub fn add_players(
connection: &Connection,
dataset: &str,
teams: &Teams<PlayerData>,
time: Timestamp,
players: &Vec<PlayerData>,
) -> sqlite::Result<()> {
let query1 = "INSERT OR IGNORE INTO players (id, discrim, name, prefix) VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?)";
let query2 = format!(
r#"INSERT OR IGNORE INTO "{}_players"
(id, last_played, deviation, volatility, sets_won, sets_lost)
VALUES (?, ?, 2.01, 0.06, '', '')"#,
r#"INSERT OR IGNORE INTO "{}_players" (id) VALUES (?)"#,
dataset
);
teams.iter().try_for_each(|team| {
team.iter().try_for_each(
|PlayerData {
id,
name,
prefix,
discrim,
}| {
let mut statement = connection.prepare(&query1)?;
statement.bind((1, id.0 as i64))?;
statement.bind((2, &discrim[..]))?;
statement.bind((3, &name[..]))?;
statement.bind((4, prefix.as_ref().map(|x| &x[..])))?;
statement.into_iter().try_for_each(|x| x.map(|_| ()))?;
players.iter().try_for_each(
|PlayerData {
id,
name,
prefix,
discrim,
}| {
let mut statement = connection.prepare(&query1)?;
statement.bind((1, id.0 as i64))?;
statement.bind((2, &discrim[..]))?;
statement.bind((3, &name[..]))?;
statement.bind((4, prefix.as_ref().map(|x| &x[..])))?;
statement.into_iter().try_for_each(|x| x.map(|_| ()))?;
statement = connection.prepare(&query2)?;
statement.bind((1, id.0 as i64))?;
statement.bind((2, time.0 as i64))?;
statement.into_iter().try_for_each(|x| x.map(|_| ()))
},
)
})
statement = connection.prepare(&query2)?;
statement.bind((1, id.0 as i64))?;
statement.into_iter().try_for_each(|x| x.map(|_| ()))
},
)
}
pub fn get_all_players(connection: &Connection, dataset: &str) -> sqlite::Result<Vec<PlayerId>> {
let query = format!(r#"SELECT id FROM "{}_players""#, dataset,);
connection
.prepare(&query)?
.into_iter()
.map(|r| {
let r_ = r?;
Ok(PlayerId(r_.read::<i64, _>("id") as u64))
})
.try_collect()
}
pub fn get_player(connection: &Connection, player: PlayerId) -> sqlite::Result<PlayerData> {
@ -375,26 +367,6 @@ pub fn match_player_name(connection: &Connection, name: &str) -> sqlite::Result<
.try_collect()
}
pub fn get_player_rating_data(
connection: &Connection,
dataset: &str,
player: PlayerId,
) -> sqlite::Result<(f64, f64, Timestamp)> {
let query = format!(
r#"SELECT deviation, volatility, last_played FROM "{}_players" WHERE id = ?"#,
dataset
);
let mut statement = connection.prepare(&query)?;
statement.bind((1, player.0 as i64))?;
statement.next()?;
Ok((
statement.read::<f64, _>("deviation")?,
statement.read::<f64, _>("volatility")?,
Timestamp(statement.read::<i64, _>("last_played")? as u64),
))
}
pub fn get_player_set_counts(
connection: &Connection,
dataset: &str,
@ -436,27 +408,21 @@ pub fn get_matchup_set_counts(
))
}
pub fn set_player_data(
pub fn set_player_set_counts(
connection: &Connection,
dataset: &str,
player: PlayerId,
last_played: Timestamp,
deviation: f64,
volatility: f64,
won: bool,
set: &SetId,
) -> sqlite::Result<()> {
let query = format!(
r#"UPDATE "{}_players" SET deviation = :dev, volatility = :vol, last_played = :last,
sets_won = iif(:won, sets_won || :set || ';', sets_won),
sets_lost = iif(:won, sets_lost, sets_lost || :set || ';') WHERE id = :id"#,
r#"UPDATE "{}_players" SET
sets_won = iif(:won, sets_won || :set || ';', sets_won),
sets_lost = iif(:won, sets_lost, sets_lost || :set || ';') WHERE id = :id"#,
dataset
);
let mut statement = connection.prepare(&query)?;
statement.bind((":dev", deviation))?;
statement.bind((":vol", volatility))?;
statement.bind((":last", last_played.0 as i64))?;
statement.bind((":id", player.0 as i64))?;
statement.bind((":won", if won { 1 } else { 0 }))?;
statement.bind((":set", &set.0.to_string()[..]))?;
@ -464,18 +430,18 @@ pub fn set_player_data(
Ok(())
}
pub fn get_advantage(
pub fn get_network_data(
connection: &Connection,
dataset: &str,
player1: PlayerId,
player2: PlayerId,
) -> sqlite::Result<Option<f64>> {
) -> sqlite::Result<Option<(f64, f64)>> {
if player1 == player2 {
return Ok(Some(0.0));
return Ok(Some((0.0, 0.0)));
}
let query = format!(
r#"SELECT iif(:a > :b, -advantage, advantage) AS advantage FROM "{}_network"
r#"SELECT iif(:a > :b, -advantage, advantage) AS advantage, variance FROM "{}_network"
WHERE player_A = min(:a, :b) AND player_B = max(:a, :b)"#,
dataset
);
@ -484,20 +450,24 @@ pub fn get_advantage(
statement.bind((":a", player1.0 as i64))?;
statement.bind((":b", player2.0 as i64))?;
statement.next()?;
statement.read::<Option<f64>, _>("advantage")
Ok(statement
.read::<Option<f64>, _>("advantage")?
.zip(statement.read::<Option<f64>, _>("variance")?))
}
pub fn insert_advantage(
pub fn insert_network_data(
connection: &Connection,
dataset: &str,
player1: PlayerId,
player2: PlayerId,
advantage: f64,
variance: f64,
time: Timestamp,
) -> sqlite::Result<()> {
let query = format!(
r#"INSERT INTO "{}_network"
(player_A, player_B, advantage, sets_A, sets_B)
VALUES (min(:a, :b), max(:a, :b), iif(:a > :b, -:v, :v), '', '')"#,
(player_A, player_B, advantage, variance, last_updated)
VALUES (min(:a, :b), max(:a, :b), iif(:a > :b, -:v, :v), :d, :t)"#,
dataset
);
@ -505,32 +475,67 @@ pub fn insert_advantage(
statement.bind((":a", player1.0 as i64))?;
statement.bind((":b", player2.0 as i64))?;
statement.bind((":v", advantage))?;
statement.bind((":d", variance))?;
statement.bind((":t", time.0 as i64))?;
statement.into_iter().try_for_each(|x| x.map(|_| ()))
}
pub fn adjust_advantages(
pub fn adjust_for_time(
connection: &Connection,
dataset: &str,
set: SetId,
player: PlayerId,
var_const: f64,
time: Timestamp,
) -> sqlite::Result<()> {
let query = format!(
r#"UPDATE "{0}_network" SET
variance = min(variance + :c * (:t - last_updated), 5.0),
last_updated = :t
WHERE player_A = :i OR player_B = :i"#,
dataset
);
let mut statement = connection.prepare(query)?;
statement.bind((":i", player.0 as i64))?;
statement.bind((":c", var_const))?;
statement.bind((":t", time.0 as i64))?;
statement.into_iter().try_for_each(|x| x.map(|_| ()))
}
pub fn glicko_adjust(
connection: &Connection,
dataset: &str,
set: &SetId,
player1: PlayerId,
player2: PlayerId,
advantage: f64,
variance: f64,
winner: usize,
adjust1: f64,
adjust2: f64,
decay_rate: f64,
) -> sqlite::Result<()> {
let score = if winner != 0 { 1.0 } else { 0.0 };
let exp_val = 1.0 / (1.0 + (-advantage).exp());
let like_var = 1.0 / exp_val / (1.0 - exp_val);
let var_new = 1.0 / (1.0 / variance + 1.0 / like_var);
let adjust = score - exp_val;
let query1 = format!(
r#"UPDATE "{}_network"
SET advantage = advantage + iif(:pl = player_A, -:v, :v) * :d
r#"UPDATE "{}_network" SET
variance = 1.0 / (1.0 / variance + :d / :lv),
advantage = advantage + :d * iif(:pl = player_A, -:adj, :adj)
/ (1.0 / variance + :d / :lv)
WHERE (player_A = :pl AND player_B != :plo)
OR (player_B = :pl AND player_A != :plo)"#,
dataset
);
let query2 = format!(
r#"UPDATE "{}_network"
SET advantage = advantage + iif(:a > :b, -:v, :v),
sets_A = iif(:w = (:a > :b), sets_A || :set || ';', sets_A),
sets_B = iif(:w = (:b > :a), sets_B || :set || ';', sets_B)
r#"UPDATE "{}_network" SET
variance = :var,
advantage = advantage + iif(:a > :b, -:adj, :adj) * :var,
sets_A = iif(:w = (:a > :b), sets_A || :set || ';', sets_A),
sets_B = iif(:w = (:b > :a), sets_B || :set || ';', sets_B)
WHERE player_A = min(:a, :b) AND player_B = max(:a, :b)"#,
dataset
);
@ -538,21 +543,24 @@ WHERE player_A = min(:a, :b) AND player_B = max(:a, :b)"#,
let mut statement = connection.prepare(&query1)?;
statement.bind((":pl", player1.0 as i64))?;
statement.bind((":plo", player2.0 as i64))?;
statement.bind((":v", adjust1))?;
statement.bind((":adj", -0.5 * adjust))?;
statement.bind((":d", decay_rate))?;
statement.bind((":lv", like_var))?;
statement.into_iter().try_for_each(|x| x.map(|_| ()))?;
statement = connection.prepare(&query1)?;
statement.bind((":pl", player2.0 as i64))?;
statement.bind((":plo", player1.0 as i64))?;
statement.bind((":v", adjust2))?;
statement.bind((":adj", 0.5 * adjust))?;
statement.bind((":d", decay_rate))?;
statement.bind((":lv", like_var))?;
statement.into_iter().try_for_each(|x| x.map(|_| ()))?;
statement = connection.prepare(&query2)?;
statement.bind((":a", player1.0 as i64))?;
statement.bind((":b", player2.0 as i64))?;
statement.bind((":v", adjust2 - adjust1))?;
statement.bind((":adj", adjust))?;
statement.bind((":var", var_new))?;
statement.bind((":w", winner as i64))?;
statement.bind((":set", &set.0.to_string()[..]))?;
statement.into_iter().try_for_each(|x| x.map(|_| ()))
@ -562,11 +570,11 @@ pub fn get_edges(
connection: &Connection,
dataset: &str,
player: PlayerId,
) -> sqlite::Result<Vec<(PlayerId, f64, u64)>> {
) -> sqlite::Result<Vec<(PlayerId, f64, f64)>> {
let query = format!(
r#"SELECT
iif(:pl = player_B, player_A, player_B) AS id,
iif(:pl = player_B, -advantage, advantage) AS advantage, sets_count
iif(:pl = player_B, -advantage, advantage) AS advantage, variance
FROM "{}_network"
WHERE player_A = :pl OR player_B = :pl"#,
dataset
@ -581,7 +589,7 @@ pub fn get_edges(
Ok((
PlayerId(r_.read::<i64, _>("id") as u64),
r_.read::<f64, _>("advantage"),
r_.read::<i64, _>("sets_count") as u64,
r_.read::<f64, _>("variance"),
))
})
.try_collect()
@ -616,20 +624,20 @@ pub fn hypothetical_advantage(
dataset: &str,
player1: PlayerId,
player2: PlayerId,
set_limit: u64,
decay_rate: f64,
adj_decay_rate: f64,
) -> sqlite::Result<f64> {
) -> sqlite::Result<(f64, f64)> {
use std::collections::{HashSet, VecDeque};
// Check trivial cases
if player1 == player2 || either_isolated(connection, dataset, player1, player2)? {
return Ok(0.0);
if player1 == player2 {
return Ok((0.0, 0.0));
} else if decay_rate < 0.05 || either_isolated(connection, dataset, player1, player2)? {
return Ok((0.0, 5.0));
}
let mut visited: HashSet<PlayerId> = HashSet::new();
let mut queue: VecDeque<(PlayerId, Vec<(f64, f64)>)> =
VecDeque::from([(player1, Vec::from([(0.0, 1.0)]))]);
let mut queue: VecDeque<(PlayerId, Vec<(f64, f64, f64)>)> =
VecDeque::from([(player1, Vec::from([(0.0, 0.0, 1.0 / decay_rate)]))]);
let mut final_paths = Vec::new();
@ -638,7 +646,7 @@ pub fn hypothetical_advantage(
let connections = get_edges(connection, dataset, visiting)?;
for (id, adv, sets) in connections
for (id, adv, var) in connections
.into_iter()
.filter(|(id, _, _)| !visited.contains(id))
{
@ -652,12 +660,9 @@ pub fn hypothetical_advantage(
};
if rf.len() < 100 {
let decay = if sets >= set_limit {
decay_rate
} else {
adj_decay_rate
};
let iter = paths.iter().map(|(a, d)| (a + adv, d * decay));
let iter = paths
.iter()
.map(|(av, vr, dec)| (av + adv, vr + var, dec * decay_rate));
rf.extend(iter);
rf.truncate(100);
@ -667,22 +672,23 @@ pub fn hypothetical_advantage(
visited.insert(visiting);
}
let max_decay = final_paths
.iter()
.map(|x| x.1)
.max_by(|d1, d2| d1.partial_cmp(d2).unwrap());
if let Some(mdec) = max_decay {
let sum_decay = final_paths.iter().map(|x| x.1).sum::<f64>();
Ok(final_paths
.into_iter()
.map(|(adv, dec)| adv * dec)
.sum::<f64>()
/ sum_decay
* mdec)
} else {
if final_paths.len() == 0 {
// No paths found
Ok(0.0)
Ok((0.0, 5.0))
} else {
let sum_decay: f64 = final_paths.iter().map(|(_, _, dec)| dec).sum();
let (final_adv, final_var) = final_paths
.into_iter()
.fold((0.0, 0.0), |(av, vr), (adv, var, dec)| {
(av + adv * dec, vr + (var + adv * adv) * dec)
});
let mut final_adv = final_adv / sum_decay;
let mut final_var = final_var / sum_decay - final_adv * final_adv;
if final_var > 5.0 {
final_adv = final_adv * (5.0 / final_var).sqrt();
final_var = 5.0;
}
Ok((final_adv, final_var))
}
}
@ -691,21 +697,12 @@ pub fn initialize_edge(
dataset: &str,
player1: PlayerId,
player2: PlayerId,
set_limit: u64,
decay_rate: f64,
adj_decay_rate: f64,
) -> sqlite::Result<f64> {
let adv = hypothetical_advantage(
connection,
dataset,
player1,
player2,
set_limit,
decay_rate,
adj_decay_rate,
)?;
insert_advantage(connection, dataset, player1, player2, adv)?;
Ok(adv)
time: Timestamp,
) -> sqlite::Result<(f64, f64)> {
let (adv, var) = hypothetical_advantage(connection, dataset, player1, player2, decay_rate)?;
insert_network_data(connection, dataset, player1, player2, adv, var, time)?;
Ok((adv, var))
}
// Tests
@ -729,8 +726,7 @@ CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS datasets (
set_limit INTEGER NOT NULL,
decay_rate REAL NOT NULL,
adj_decay_rate REAL NOT NULL,
period REAL NOT NULL,
tau REAL NOT NULL
var_const
) STRICT;
CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS players (
@ -769,11 +765,8 @@ CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS sets (
game_slug: String::from("test"),
country: None,
state: None,
set_limit: 0,
decay_rate: 0.5,
adj_decay_rate: 0.5,
period: (3600 * 24 * 30) as f64,
tau: 0.2,
decay_const: 0.5,
var_const: 0.00000001,
}
}
@ -787,141 +780,4 @@ CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS sets (
})
.collect()
}
#[test]
fn sqlite_sanity_check() -> sqlite::Result<()> {
let test_value: i64 = 2;
let connection = sqlite::open(":memory:")?;
connection.execute(
r#"CREATE TABLE test (a INTEGER);
INSERT INTO test VALUES (1);
INSERT INTO test VALUES (2)"#,
)?;
let mut statement = connection.prepare("SELECT * FROM test WHERE a = ?")?;
statement.bind((1, test_value))?;
statement.next()?;
assert_eq!(statement.read::<i64, _>("a")?, test_value);
Ok(())
}
#[test]
fn test_players() -> sqlite::Result<()> {
let connection = mock_datasets()?;
new_dataset(&connection, "test", metadata())?;
add_players(&connection, "test", &vec![players(2)], Timestamp(0))?;
let mut statement = connection.prepare("SELECT * FROM players WHERE id = 1")?;
statement.next()?;
assert_eq!(statement.read::<i64, _>("id")?, 1);
assert_eq!(statement.read::<String, _>("name")?, "1");
assert_eq!(statement.read::<Option<String>, _>("prefix")?, None);
Ok(())
}
#[test]
fn edge_insert_get() -> sqlite::Result<()> {
let connection = mock_datasets()?;
new_dataset(&connection, "test", metadata())?;
add_players(&connection, "test", &vec![players(2)], Timestamp(0))?;
insert_advantage(&connection, "test", PlayerId(2), PlayerId(1), 1.0)?;
assert_eq!(
get_advantage(&connection, "test", PlayerId(1), PlayerId(2))?,
Some(-1.0)
);
assert_eq!(
get_advantage(&connection, "test", PlayerId(2), PlayerId(1))?,
Some(1.0)
);
Ok(())
}
#[test]
fn player_all_edges() -> sqlite::Result<()> {
let connection = mock_datasets()?;
new_dataset(&connection, "test", metadata())?;
add_players(&connection, "test", &vec![players(3)], Timestamp(0))?;
insert_advantage(&connection, "test", PlayerId(2), PlayerId(1), 1.0)?;
insert_advantage(&connection, "test", PlayerId(1), PlayerId(3), 5.0)?;
assert_eq!(
get_edges(&connection, "test", PlayerId(1))?,
[(PlayerId(2), -1.0, 0), (PlayerId(3), 5.0, 0)]
);
assert_eq!(
get_edges(&connection, "test", PlayerId(2))?,
[(PlayerId(1), 1.0, 0)]
);
assert_eq!(
get_edges(&connection, "test", PlayerId(3))?,
[(PlayerId(1), -5.0, 0)]
);
Ok(())
}
#[test]
fn hypoth_adv_trivial() -> sqlite::Result<()> {
let num_players = 3;
let connection = mock_datasets()?;
new_dataset(&connection, "test", metadata())?;
add_players(
&connection,
"test",
&vec![players(num_players)],
Timestamp(0),
)?;
let metadata = metadata();
for i in 1..=num_players {
for j in 1..=num_players {
assert_eq!(
hypothetical_advantage(
&connection,
"test",
PlayerId(i),
PlayerId(j),
metadata.set_limit,
metadata.decay_rate,
metadata.adj_decay_rate
)?,
0.0
);
}
}
Ok(())
}
#[test]
fn hypoth_adv1() -> sqlite::Result<()> {
let connection = mock_datasets()?;
new_dataset(&connection, "test", metadata())?;
add_players(&connection, "test", &vec![players(2)], Timestamp(0))?;
insert_advantage(&connection, "test", PlayerId(1), PlayerId(2), 1.0)?;
let metadata = metadata();
assert_eq!(
hypothetical_advantage(
&connection,
"test",
PlayerId(1),
PlayerId(2),
metadata.set_limit,
metadata.decay_rate,
metadata.adj_decay_rate
)?,
1.0
);
Ok(())
}
}

301
src/main.rs
View file

@ -81,6 +81,12 @@ created if it does not already exist."
#[arg(short, long, global = true, help = "The dataset to access")]
dataset: Option<String>,
},
Ranking {
#[command(subcommand)]
subcommand: RankingSC,
#[arg(short, long, global = true, help = "The dataset to access")]
dataset: Option<String>,
},
}
#[derive(Subcommand)]
@ -106,13 +112,20 @@ enum PlayerSC {
Matchup { player1: String, player2: String },
}
#[derive(Subcommand)]
enum RankingSC {
#[command(about = "Create a new ranking")]
Create,
}
fn main() {
let cli = Cli::parse();
let config_dir = cli
.config_dir
.map(|mut s| { s.push("startrnr"); s })
.unwrap_or_else(|| dirs::config_dir().expect("Could not determine config directory"));
let config_dir = cli.config_dir.unwrap_or_else(|| {
let mut dir = dirs::config_dir().expect("Could not determine config directory");
dir.push("startrnr");
dir
});
let mut data_dir = dirs::data_dir().expect("Could not determine user data directory");
data_dir.push("startrnr");
@ -224,22 +237,10 @@ fn dataset_list(connection: &Connection) {
);
}
}
println!();
if metadata.set_limit != 0 && metadata.decay_rate != metadata.adj_decay_rate {
println!("\x1b[1mSet Limit:\x1b[0m {}", metadata.set_limit);
println!(
"\x1b[1mNetwork Decay Rate:\x1b[0m {} (adjusted {})",
metadata.decay_rate, metadata.adj_decay_rate
);
} else {
println!("\x1b[1mNetwork Decay Rate:\x1b[0m {}", metadata.decay_rate);
}
println!(
"\x1b[1mRating Period:\x1b[0m {} days",
metadata.period / SECS_IN_DAY as f64
"\n\x1b[1mNetwork Decay Constant:\x1b[0m {}",
metadata.decay_const
);
println!("\x1b[1mTau Constant:\x1b[0m {}\n", metadata.tau);
}
}
@ -399,33 +400,11 @@ End date (year, m/y, or m/d/y): "
}
};
// Set Limit
let mut set_limit = 0;
print!(
"
\x1b[1mSet Limit\x1b[0m
The set limit is an optional feature of the rating system that defines how many
sets must be played between two players for their rating data to be considered
trustworthy.
This value should be set low, i.e. not more than 5 or 6.
Set limit (default 0): "
);
let set_limit_input = read_string();
if !set_limit_input.is_empty() {
set_limit = set_limit_input
.parse::<u64>()
.unwrap_or_else(|_| error("Input is not an integer", 1));
}
// Advanced Options
// Defaults
let mut decay_rate = 0.8;
let mut adj_decay_rate = 0.6;
let mut period_days = 40.0;
let mut tau = 0.4;
let mut decay_const = 0.9;
let mut var_const = (10.0 - 0.04) / SECS_IN_YEAR as f64 / 3.0;
print!("\nConfigure advanced options? (y/n) ");
if let Some('y') = read_string().chars().next() {
@ -433,87 +412,42 @@ Set limit (default 0): "
print!(
"
\x1b[1mNetwork Decay Rate\x1b[0m
The network decay rate is a number between 0 and 1 that controls how the
advantage network reacts to player wins and losses. If the decay rate is 1,
then it is assumed that a player's skill against one opponent always carries
over to all other opponents. If the decay rate is 0, then all player match-ups
are assumed to be independent of each other.
\x1b[1mNetwork Decay Constant\x1b[0m
The network decay constant is a number between 0 and 1 that controls how
player wins and losses propagate throughout the network. If the decay
constant is 1, then it is assumed that a player's skill against one
opponent always carries over to all other opponents. If the decay
constant is 0, then all player match-ups are assumed to be independent of
each other.
Network decay rate (default 0.8): "
Network decay constant (default 0.9): "
);
let decay_rate_input = read_string();
if !decay_rate_input.is_empty() {
decay_rate = decay_rate_input
let decay_const_input = read_string();
if !decay_const_input.is_empty() {
decay_const = decay_const_input
.parse::<f64>()
.unwrap_or_else(|_| error("Input is not a number", 1));
if decay_rate < 0.0 || decay_rate > 1.0 {
if decay_const < 0.0 || decay_const > 1.0 {
error("Input is not between 0 and 1", 1);
}
}
// Adjusted Decay Rate
if set_limit != 0 {
print!(
"
\x1b[1mAdjusted Network Decay Rate\x1b[0m
If the number of sets played between two players is less than the set limit,
then this value is used instead of the regular network decay rate.
This value should be \x1b[1mlower\x1b[0m than the network decay rate.
Adjusted network decay rate (default 0.6): "
);
let adj_decay_rate_input = read_string();
if !adj_decay_rate_input.is_empty() {
adj_decay_rate = adj_decay_rate_input
.parse::<f64>()
.unwrap_or_else(|_| error("Input is not a number", 1));
if decay_rate < 0.0 || decay_rate > 1.0 {
error("Input is not between 0 and 1", 1);
}
}
}
// Rating Period
// Variance Constant
print!(
"
\x1b[1mRating Period\x1b[0m
The rating period is an interval of time that dictates how player ratings change
during inactivity. Ideally the rating period should be somewhat long, long
enough to expect almost every player in the dataset to have played at least a
few sets.
\x1b[1mVariance Rate\x1b[0m
This constant determines how quickly a player's variance (the uncertainty
of their rating) increases over time. See the end of \x1b[4m\x1b]8;;http:\
//www.glicko.net/glicko/glicko.pdf\x1b\\this paper\x1b]8;;\x1b\\\x1b[0m for details
on how to compute a good value, or you can leave it blank and a reasonable
default will be chosen.
Rating period (in days, default 40): "
Variance rate: "
);
let period_input = read_string();
if !period_input.is_empty() {
period_days = period_input
.parse::<f64>()
.unwrap_or_else(|_| error("Input is not a number", 1));
}
// Tau coefficient
print!(
"
\x1b[1mTau Constant\x1b[0m
The tau constant is an internal system constant that roughly represents how
much random chance and luck play a role in game outcomes. In games where match
results are highly predictable, and a player's skill is the sole factor for
whether they will win, the tau constant should be high (0.9 - 1.2). In games
where luck matters, and more improbable victories can occur, the tau constant
should be low (0.2 - 0.4).
The tau constant is set low by default, since skill-based competitive video
games tend to be on the more luck-heavy side.
Tau constant (default 0.4): "
);
let tau_input = read_string();
if !tau_input.is_empty() {
tau = tau_input
let var_const_input = read_string();
if !var_const_input.is_empty() {
var_const = var_const_input
.parse::<f64>()
.unwrap_or_else(|_| error("Input is not a number", 1));
}
@ -533,11 +467,8 @@ Tau constant (default 0.4): "
game_slug,
country,
state,
set_limit,
decay_rate,
adj_decay_rate,
period: SECS_IN_DAY as f64 * period_days,
tau,
decay_const,
var_const,
},
)
.expect("Error communicating with SQLite");
@ -591,9 +522,6 @@ fn player_info(connection: &Connection, dataset: Option<String>, player: String)
} = get_player_from_input(connection, player)
.unwrap_or_else(|_| error("Could not find player", 1));
let (deviation, volatility, _) = get_player_rating_data(connection, &dataset, id)
.unwrap_or_else(|_| error("Could not find player", 1));
let (won, lost) = get_player_set_counts(connection, &dataset, id)
.unwrap_or_else(|_| error("Could not find player", 1));
@ -613,9 +541,6 @@ fn player_info(connection: &Connection, dataset: Option<String>, player: String)
lost,
(won as f64 / (won + lost) as f64) * 100.0
);
println!("\n\x1b[1mDeviation:\x1b[0m {}", deviation);
println!("\x1b[1mVolatility:\x1b[0m {}", volatility);
}
fn player_matchup(
@ -634,9 +559,6 @@ fn player_matchup(
} = get_player_from_input(connection, player1)
.unwrap_or_else(|_| error("Could not find player", 1));
let (deviation1, _, _) = get_player_rating_data(connection, &dataset, player1)
.unwrap_or_else(|_| error("Could not find player", 1));
let PlayerData {
id: player2,
name: name2,
@ -645,42 +567,34 @@ fn player_matchup(
} = get_player_from_input(connection, player2)
.unwrap_or_else(|_| error("Could not find player", 1));
let (deviation2, _, _) = get_player_rating_data(connection, &dataset, player2)
.unwrap_or_else(|_| error("Could not find player", 1));
let (hypothetical, advantage) = get_advantage(connection, &dataset, player1, player2)
.expect("Error communicating with SQLite")
.map(|x| (false, x))
.unwrap_or_else(|| {
let metadata = get_metadata(connection, &dataset)
.expect("Error communicating with SQLite")
.unwrap_or_else(|| error("Dataset not found", 1));
(
true,
hypothetical_advantage(
let (hypothetical, advantage, variance) =
get_network_data(connection, &dataset, player1, player2)
.expect("Error communicating with SQLite")
.map(|(adv, var)| (false, adv, var))
.unwrap_or_else(|| {
let metadata = get_metadata(connection, &dataset)
.expect("Error communicating with SQLite")
.unwrap_or_else(|| error("Dataset not found", 1));
let (adv, var) = hypothetical_advantage(
connection,
&dataset,
player1,
player2,
metadata.set_limit,
metadata.decay_rate,
metadata.adj_decay_rate,
metadata.decay_const,
)
.expect("Error communicating with SQLite"),
)
});
.expect("Error communicating with SQLite");
(true, adv, var)
});
let probability = 1.0
/ (1.0
+ f64::exp(
g_func((deviation1 * deviation1 + deviation2 * deviation2).sqrt()) * advantage,
));
let probability = 1.0 / (1.0 + f64::exp(-advantage));
let (color, other_color) = ansi_num_color(advantage, 0.2, 2.0);
let len1 = prefix1.as_deref().map(|s| s.len() + 1).unwrap_or(0) + name1.len();
let len2 = prefix2.as_deref().map(|s| s.len() + 1).unwrap_or(0) + name2.len();
// Prefix + name for each player
if let Some(pre) = prefix1 {
print!("\x1b[2m{}\x1b[22m ", pre);
}
@ -698,26 +612,30 @@ fn player_matchup(
discrim2, name2
);
// Probability breakdown
println!(
"\x1b[1m\x1b[{4}m{0:>2$}\x1b[0m - \x1b[1m\x1b[{5}m{1:<3$}\x1b[0m",
format!("{:.1}%", probability * 100.0),
format!("{:.1}%", (1.0 - probability) * 100.0),
format!("{:.1}%", probability * 100.0),
len1,
len2,
other_color,
color
);
if hypothetical {
println!(
"\n\x1b[1mHypothetical Advantage: \x1b[{1}m{0:+.4}\x1b[0m",
advantage, color
);
} else {
println!(
"\n\x1b[1mAdvantage: \x1b[{1}m{0:+.4}\x1b[0m",
advantage, color
);
// Advantage + variance
println!(
"\n\x1b[1m{0}Advantage: \x1b[{1}m{2:+.4}\x1b[39m\n{0}Variance: {3:.4}\x1b[0m",
if hypothetical { "Hypothetical " } else { "" },
color,
advantage,
variance
);
if !hypothetical {
// Set count
let (a, b) = get_matchup_set_counts(connection, &dataset, player1, player2)
.expect("Error communicating with SQLite");
@ -777,5 +695,70 @@ fn sync(connection: &Connection, auth: String, datasets: Vec<String>, all: bool)
}
fn ranking_create(connection: &Connection, dataset: Option<String>) {
use std::collections::HashMap;
let dataset = dataset.unwrap_or_else(|| String::from("default"));
let metadata = get_metadata(connection, &dataset)
.expect("Error communicating with SQLite")
.unwrap_or_else(|| error("Dataset not found", 1));
let exp = read_string().parse::<f64>().unwrap();
let players = get_all_players(connection, &dataset).expect("Error communicating with SQLite");
let num_players = players.len();
let mut table = players
.into_iter()
.map(|id| (id, 1.0 / num_players as f64))
.collect::<HashMap<_, _>>();
table.shrink_to_fit();
let mut diff: f64 = 1.0;
let mut iter = 0;
while diff > 1e-8 {
let mut new_table = HashMap::with_capacity(table.capacity());
for (&id, &last) in table.iter() {
let mut points = get_edges(connection, &dataset, id)
.expect("Error communicating with SQLite")
.into_iter()
.map(|(other, adv, _sets)| (other, exp.powf(adv)))
.collect::<Vec<_>>();
points.push((id, 1.0));
let sum_points = points.iter().map(|(_, val)| val).sum::<f64>();
points.into_iter().for_each(|(other, pts)| {
let pts_ = last * pts / sum_points;
new_table
.entry(other)
.and_modify(|v| *v += pts_)
.or_insert(pts_);
})
}
if iter % 10 == 0 {
diff = (table
.iter()
.map(|(id, &last)| (new_table[id] - last) * (new_table[id] - last))
.sum::<f64>()
/ num_players as f64)
.sqrt();
println!("{}", diff);
}
table = new_table;
iter += 1;
}
let mut list = table.into_iter().collect::<Vec<_>>();
list.sort_by(|(_, a), (_, b)| b.partial_cmp(a).unwrap());
println!();
for (id, pts) in list.into_iter().take(20) {
let player = get_player(connection, id).unwrap();
println!("{} - {}", player.name, pts);
}
}

218
src/sync.rs
View file

@ -1,4 +1,3 @@
use std::f64::consts::PI;
use std::thread::sleep;
use std::time::Duration;
@ -8,86 +7,6 @@ use crate::queries::*;
use itertools::Itertools;
use sqlite::*;
// Glicko-2 system calculation
pub fn g_func(dev: f64) -> f64 {
1.0 / (1.0 + 3.0 * dev * dev / PI / PI).sqrt()
}
fn time_adjust(periods: f64, old_dev_sq: f64, volatility: f64) -> f64 {
(old_dev_sq + periods * volatility * volatility).sqrt()
}
fn illinois_optimize(fun: impl Fn(f64) -> f64, mut a: f64, mut b: f64) -> f64 {
let mut f_a = fun(a);
let mut f_b = fun(b);
while (b - a).abs() > 1e-6 {
let c = a + (a - b) * f_a / (f_b - f_a);
let f_c = fun(c);
if f_c * f_b > 0.0 {
f_a = f_a / 2.0;
} else {
a = b;
f_a = f_b;
}
b = c;
f_b = f_c;
}
a
}
fn glicko_adjust(
advantage: f64,
deviation: f64,
volatility: f64,
other_deviation: f64,
won: bool,
time: u64,
metadata: &DatasetMetadata,
) -> (f64, f64, f64) {
let period = metadata.period;
let tau = metadata.tau;
let g_val = g_func(other_deviation);
let exp_val = 1.0 / (1.0 + f64::exp(-g_val * advantage));
let variance = 1.0 / (g_val * g_val * exp_val * (1.0 - exp_val));
let score = if won { 1.0 } else { 0.0 };
let delta = variance * g_val * (score - exp_val);
let delta_sq = delta * delta;
let dev_sq = deviation * deviation;
let a = (volatility * volatility).ln();
let vol_fn = |x| {
let ex = f64::exp(x);
let subf = dev_sq + variance + ex;
((ex * (delta_sq - dev_sq - variance - ex)) / 2.0 / subf / subf) - (x - a) / tau / tau
};
let initial_b = if delta_sq > dev_sq + variance {
(delta_sq - dev_sq - variance).ln()
} else {
(1..)
.map(|k| vol_fn(a - k as f64 * tau))
.inspect(|x| {
if x.is_nan() {
panic!();
}
})
.find(|x| x >= &0.0)
.unwrap()
};
let vol_new = f64::exp(illinois_optimize(vol_fn, a, initial_b) / 2.0);
let dev_time = time_adjust(time as f64 / period, dev_sq, vol_new);
let dev_new = 1.0 / (1.0 / dev_time / dev_time + 1.0 / variance).sqrt();
let adjust = dev_new * dev_new * g_val * (score - exp_val);
(adjust, dev_new, vol_new)
}
// Extract set data
fn get_event_sets(event: EventId, auth: &str) -> Option<Vec<SetData>> {
@ -200,104 +119,67 @@ fn update_from_set(
event_time: Timestamp,
results: SetData,
) -> sqlite::Result<()> {
let players_data = results.teams;
// Fall back to event time if set time is not recorded
let time = results.time.unwrap_or(event_time);
add_players(connection, dataset, &players_data, time)?;
let teams = results.teams;
// Non-singles matches are currently not supported
if players_data.len() != 2 || players_data[0].len() != 1 || players_data[1].len() != 1 {
if teams.len() != 2 || teams[0].len() != 1 || teams[1].len() != 1 {
return Ok(());
}
let mut it = players_data.into_iter();
let player1 = it.next().unwrap()[0].id;
let player2 = it.next().unwrap()[0].id;
drop(it);
let players = teams.into_iter().flatten().collect::<Vec<_>>();
add_players(connection, dataset, &players)?;
let (deviation1, volatility1, last_played1) =
get_player_rating_data(connection, dataset, player1)?;
let time1 = time.0.checked_sub(last_played1.0).unwrap_or(0);
let player1 = players[0].id;
let player2 = players[1].id;
let (deviation2, volatility2, last_played2) =
get_player_rating_data(connection, dataset, player1)?;
let time2 = time.0.checked_sub(last_played2.0).unwrap_or(0);
// Time-adjust all variances associated with each player
let time = results.time.unwrap_or(event_time);
adjust_for_time(connection, dataset, player1, metadata.var_const, time)?;
adjust_for_time(connection, dataset, player2, metadata.var_const, time)?;
let advantage = match get_advantage(connection, dataset, player1, player2) {
let (advantage, variance) = match get_network_data(connection, dataset, player1, player2) {
Err(e) => Err(e)?,
Ok(None) => initialize_edge(
connection,
dataset,
player1,
player2,
metadata.set_limit,
metadata.decay_rate,
metadata.adj_decay_rate,
metadata.decay_const,
time,
)?,
Ok(Some(adv)) => adv,
};
let (adjust1, dev_new1, vol_new1) = glicko_adjust(
-advantage,
deviation1,
volatility1,
deviation2,
results.winner == 0,
time1,
metadata,
);
let (adjust2, dev_new2, vol_new2) = glicko_adjust(
// println!("{}, {} - {}, {}", player1.0, player2.0, advantage, variance);
glicko_adjust(
connection,
dataset,
&results.id,
player1,
player2,
advantage,
deviation2,
volatility2,
deviation1,
results.winner == 1,
time2,
metadata,
);
variance,
results.winner,
metadata.decay_const,
)?;
// Set minimum deviation level
let dev_new1 = f64::max(dev_new1, 0.2);
let dev_new2 = f64::max(dev_new2, 0.2);
set_player_data(
set_player_set_counts(
connection,
dataset,
player1,
time,
dev_new1,
vol_new1,
results.winner == 0,
&results.id,
)?;
set_player_data(
set_player_set_counts(
connection,
dataset,
player2,
time,
dev_new2,
vol_new2,
results.winner == 1,
&results.id,
)?;
let (sets1, sets2) = get_matchup_set_counts(connection, dataset, player1, player2)?;
let decay_rate = if sets1 + sets2 >= metadata.set_limit {
metadata.decay_rate
} else {
metadata.adj_decay_rate
};
adjust_advantages(
connection,
dataset,
results.id,
player1,
player2,
results.winner,
adjust1,
adjust2,
decay_rate,
)
Ok(())
}
pub fn sync_dataset(
@ -340,45 +222,3 @@ pub fn sync_dataset(
}
connection.execute("COMMIT;")
}
#[cfg(test)]
mod tests {
use super::*;
use crate::database::tests::*;
#[test]
fn glicko_single() -> sqlite::Result<()> {
let connection = mock_datasets()?;
new_dataset(&connection, "test", metadata())?;
let players = players(2).into_iter().map(|x| vec![x]).collect();
add_players(&connection, "test", &players, Timestamp(0))?;
update_from_set(
&connection,
"test",
&metadata(),
Timestamp(0),
SetData {
id: SetId(StringOrInt::Int(0)),
time: None,
teams: players,
winner: 0,
},
)?;
println!(
"{:?}",
get_advantage(&connection, "test", PlayerId(1), PlayerId(2))?.unwrap()
);
println!(
"{:?}",
get_player_rating_data(&connection, "test", PlayerId(1))
);
println!(
"{:?}",
get_player_rating_data(&connection, "test", PlayerId(2))
);
Ok(())
}
}

1
src/util.rs
View file

@ -8,6 +8,7 @@ use crate::queries::{PlayerData, PlayerId, Timestamp};
pub const SECS_IN_HR: u64 = 3600;
pub const SECS_IN_DAY: u64 = SECS_IN_HR * 24;
pub const SECS_IN_WEEK: u64 = SECS_IN_DAY * 7;
pub const SECS_IN_YEAR: u64 = SECS_IN_DAY * 365 + SECS_IN_HR * 6;
pub fn error(msg: &str, code: i32) -> ! {
eprintln!("\nERROR: {}", msg);