toki/StartRNR
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Implement RNR rating adjustment

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This commit is contained in:
Kiana Sheibani 2023-10-04 17:58:54 -04:00
parent 1b603bf727
commit 2e3bd017f3
Signed by: toki
GPG key ID: 6CB106C25E86A9F7
5 changed files with 240 additions and 75 deletions
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3
README.md
View file

@ -7,7 +7,8 @@ network of relative advantages between players.
Once the advantage network is generated, StartRNR can be used to predict the
probability of a player winning a match, generate provably optimal seedings for
tournaments, and create rankings of players automatically.
tournaments, inspect the match history of two players, and create competitive
rankings automatically.
**All of these features work for any game, in any region, without restriction.**

205
src/datasets.rs
View file

@ -8,6 +8,7 @@ use std::time::SystemTime;
pub struct DatasetMetadata {
pub last_sync: Timestamp,
pub game_id: VideogameId,
pub game_name: String,
pub state: Option<String>,
@ -33,9 +34,11 @@ pub fn open_datasets(config_dir: &Path) -> sqlite::Result<Connection> {
let path = datasets_path(config_dir).unwrap();
let query = "
PRAGMA foreign_keys = ON;
CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS datasets (
name TEXT UNIQUE NOT NULL,
last_sync INTEGER DEFAULT 1,
last_sync INTEGER NOT NULL,
game_id INTEGER NOT NULL,
game_name TEXT NOT NULL,
state TEXT
@ -82,7 +85,8 @@ pub fn list_datasets(connection: &Connection) -> sqlite::Result<Vec<(String, Dat
pub fn delete_dataset(connection: &Connection, dataset: &str) -> sqlite::Result<()> {
let query = format!(
r#"DELETE FROM datasets WHERE name = '{0}';
DROP TABLE "dataset_{0}";"#,
DROP TABLE "dataset_{0}_players";
DROP TABLE "dataset_{0}_network";"#,
dataset
);
@ -97,11 +101,25 @@ pub fn new_dataset(
let query1 = r#"INSERT INTO datasets (name, game_id, game_name, state)
VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?)"#;
let query2 = format!(
r#" CREATE TABLE "dataset_{0}" (
r#"
CREATE TABLE "dataset_{0}_players" (
id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY,
name TEXT,
prefix TEXT,
elo REAL NOT NULL
prefix TEXT
);
CREATE TABLE "dataset_{0}_network" (
player_A INTEGER NOT NULL,
player_B INTEGER NOT NULL,
advantage REAL NOT NULL,
sets_A INTEGER NOT NULL,
sets_B INTEGER NOT NULL,
games_A INTEGER NOT NULL,
games_B INTEGER NOT NULL,
UNIQUE (player_A, player_B),
CHECK (player_A < player_B),
FOREIGN KEY(player_A, player_B) REFERENCES "dataset_{0}_players"
ON DELETE CASCADE
) STRICT;"#,
dataset
);
@ -165,7 +183,7 @@ pub fn add_players(
teams: &Teams<PlayerData>,
) -> sqlite::Result<()> {
let query = format!(
r#"INSERT OR IGNORE INTO "dataset_{}" VALUES (?, ?, ?, 1500)"#,
r#"INSERT OR IGNORE INTO "dataset_{}_players" VALUES (?, ?, ?)"#,
dataset
);
@ -180,43 +198,160 @@ pub fn add_players(
})
}
pub fn get_ratings(
pub fn get_advantage(
connection: &Connection,
dataset: &str,
teams: &Teams<PlayerData>,
) -> sqlite::Result<Teams<(PlayerId, f64)>> {
let query = format!(r#"SELECT id, elo FROM "dataset_{}" WHERE id = ?"#, dataset);
player1: PlayerId,
player2: PlayerId,
) -> sqlite::Result<f64> {
if player1 == player2 {
return Ok(0.0);
}
teams
.iter()
.map(|team| {
team.iter()
.map(|data| {
let mut statement = connection.prepare(&query)?;
statement.bind((1, data.id.0 as i64))?;
statement.next()?;
Ok((data.id, statement.read::<f64, _>("elo")?))
})
.try_collect()
})
.try_collect()
}
pub fn update_ratings(
connection: &Connection,
dataset: &str,
elos: Teams<(PlayerId, f64)>,
) -> sqlite::Result<()> {
let query = format!(
r#"UPDATE "dataset_{}" SET elo = :elo WHERE id = :id"#,
r#"SELECT iif(:a > :b, -advantage, advantage) FROM "dataset_{}_network"
WHERE player_A = min(:a, :b) AND player_B = max(:a, :b)"#,
dataset
);
elos.into_iter().try_for_each(|team| {
team.into_iter().try_for_each(|(id, elo)| {
let mut statement = connection.prepare(&query)?;
statement.bind((":elo", elo))?;
statement.bind((":id", id.0 as i64))?;
statement.bind((":a", player1.0 as i64))?;
statement.bind((":b", player2.0 as i64))?;
statement.next()?;
statement.read::<f64, _>("advantage")
}
pub fn adjust_advantage(
connection: &Connection,
dataset: &str,
player1: PlayerId,
player2: PlayerId,
adjust: f64,
) -> sqlite::Result<()> {
let query = format!(
r#"UPDATE "dataset_{}_network"
SET advantage = advantage + iif(:a > :b, -:v, :v)
WHERE player_A = min(:a, :b) AND player_B = max(:a, :b)"#,
dataset
);
let mut statement = connection.prepare(&query)?;
statement.bind((":a", player1.0 as i64))?;
statement.bind((":b", player2.0 as i64))?;
statement.bind((":v", adjust))?;
statement.into_iter().try_for_each(|x| x.map(|_| ()))
}
pub fn adjust_advantages(
connection: &Connection,
dataset: &str,
player: PlayerId,
adjust: f64,
) -> sqlite::Result<()> {
let query = format!(
r#"UPDATE "dataset_{}_network"
SET advantage = advantage + iif(:pl = player_A, -:v, :v)
WHERE player_A = :pl OR player_B = :pl"#,
dataset
);
let mut statement = connection.prepare(&query)?;
statement.bind((":pl", player.0 as i64))?;
statement.bind((":v", adjust))?;
statement.into_iter().try_for_each(|x| x.map(|_| ()))
}
pub fn get_edges(
connection: &Connection,
dataset: &str,
player: PlayerId,
) -> sqlite::Result<Vec<(PlayerId, f64)>> {
let query = format!(
r#"SELECT iif(:pl = player_B, player_A, player_B) AS id, iif(:pl = player_B, -advantage, advantage) AS advantage
FROM "dataset_{}_network"
WHERE player_A = :pl OR player_B = :pl"#,
dataset
);
connection
.prepare(&query)?
.into_iter()
.bind((":pl", player.0 as i64))?
.map(|r| {
let r_ = r?;
Ok((
PlayerId(r_.read::<i64, _>("id") as u64),
r_.read::<f64, _>("advantage"),
))
})
.try_collect()
}
pub fn get_path_advantage(
connection: &Connection,
dataset: &str,
players: &[PlayerId],
) -> sqlite::Result<f64> {
players.windows(2).try_fold(0.0, |acc, [a, b]| {
Ok(acc + get_advantage(connection, dataset, *a, *b)?)
})
}
pub fn hypothetical_advantage(
connection: &Connection,
dataset: &str,
player1: PlayerId,
player2: PlayerId,
) -> sqlite::Result<f64> {
if player1 == player2 {
return Ok(0.0);
}
let mut paths: Vec<Vec<(Vec<PlayerId>, f64)>> = vec![vec![(vec![player1], 0.0)]];
for _ in 2..=6 {
let new_paths = paths.last().unwrap().into_iter().cloned().try_fold(
Vec::new(),
|mut acc, (path, adv)| {
acc.extend(
get_edges(connection, dataset, *path.last().unwrap())?
.into_iter()
.map(|(x, next_adv)| {
let mut path = path.clone();
path.extend_one(x);
(path, adv + next_adv)
}),
);
Ok(acc)
},
)?;
paths.extend_one(new_paths);
}
let mut shortest_len = 0;
Ok(paths[1..]
.into_iter()
.enumerate()
.map(|(i, ps)| {
let num_ps = ps.len();
if num_ps == 0 {
return 0.0;
}
if shortest_len == 0 {
shortest_len = i + 1;
}
ps.into_iter()
.filter_map(|(path, adv)| {
if *path.last().unwrap() == player2 {
Some(adv)
} else {
None
}
})
.sum::<f64>()
/ num_ps as f64
* (0.5_f64.powi((i - shortest_len) as i32))
})
.sum())
}

9
src/main.rs
View file

@ -1,4 +1,5 @@
#![feature(iterator_try_collect)]
#![feature(extend_one)]
use clap::{Parser, Subcommand};
use std::io::{self, Write};
@ -51,7 +52,7 @@ AUTH_TOKEN, or in a text file '<CONFIG_DIR>/auth.txt'."
value_name = "DIR",
global = true,
help = "Config directory",
long_help = "This option overrides the default config directory.
long_help = "This flag overrides the default config directory.
If this directory does not exist, it will be created and a database file will
be initialized within it."
)]
@ -67,9 +68,9 @@ enum Subcommands {
},
#[command(
about = "Sync player ratings",
long_about = "Pull recent tournament data off of start.gg and use it to update each player's
stored ratings. This command will automatically keep track of the last time each
dataset was synced."
long_about = "Pull recent tournament data off of start.gg and use it to
update the network. This command will automatically keep track of the last time each
dataset was synced to ensure that each tournament is only accounted for once."
)]
Sync {
#[arg(

9
src/queries.rs
View file

@ -52,19 +52,19 @@ pub fn get_auth_token(config_dir: &Path) -> Option<String> {
#[cynic(graphql_type = "ID")]
pub struct VideogameId(pub u64);
#[derive(cynic::Scalar, Debug, Copy, Clone)]
#[derive(cynic::Scalar, Debug, Copy, Clone, PartialEq, Eq, PartialOrd, Ord)]
#[cynic(graphql_type = "ID")]
pub struct EventId(pub u64);
#[derive(cynic::Scalar, Debug, Copy, Clone)]
#[derive(cynic::Scalar, Debug, Copy, Clone, PartialEq, Eq, PartialOrd, Ord)]
#[cynic(graphql_type = "ID")]
pub struct EntrantId(pub u64);
#[derive(cynic::Scalar, Debug, Copy, Clone)]
#[derive(cynic::Scalar, Debug, Copy, Clone, PartialEq, Eq, PartialOrd, Ord)]
#[cynic(graphql_type = "ID")]
pub struct PlayerId(pub u64);
#[derive(cynic::Scalar, Debug, Copy, Clone)]
#[derive(cynic::Scalar, Debug, Copy, Clone, PartialEq, Eq, PartialOrd, Ord)]
pub struct Timestamp(pub u64);
// Query machinery
@ -89,6 +89,7 @@ where
.header("Authorization", String::from("Bearer ") + auth_token)
.run_graphql(Builder::build(vars));
// If query fails to reach server, retry up to 10 times
for _ in 1..10 {
if response.is_ok() {
break;

89
src/sync.rs
View file

@ -8,31 +8,31 @@ use sqlite::*;
// Score calculation
/// Calculate the collective expected score for each team.
fn expected_scores(ratings: &Teams<&mut f64>) -> Vec<f64> {
let qs: Vec<f64> = ratings
.into_iter()
.map(|es| 10_f64.powf(es.iter().map(|x| **x).sum::<f64>() / es.len() as f64 / 400.0))
.collect();
let sumq: f64 = qs.iter().sum();
qs.into_iter().map(|q| q / sumq).collect()
}
// /// Calculate the collective expected score for each team.
// fn expected_scores(ratings: &Teams<&mut f64>) -> Vec<f64> {
// let qs: Vec<f64> = ratings
// .into_iter()
// .map(|es| 10_f64.powf(es.iter().map(|x| **x).sum::<f64>() / es.len() as f64 / 400.0))
// .collect();
// let sumq: f64 = qs.iter().sum();
// qs.into_iter().map(|q| q / sumq).collect()
// }
/// Adjust the ratings of each player based on who won.
fn adjust_ratings(ratings: Teams<&mut f64>, winner: usize) {
let exp_scores = expected_scores(&ratings);
// /// Adjust the ratings of each player based on who won.
// fn adjust_ratings(ratings: Teams<&mut f64>, winner: usize) {
// let exp_scores = expected_scores(&ratings);
ratings
.into_iter()
.zip(exp_scores.into_iter())
.enumerate()
.for_each(|(i, (es, exp_sc))| {
let len = es.len() as f64;
let score = f64::from(winner == i);
es.into_iter()
.for_each(|e| *e += 40.0 * (score - exp_sc) / len);
})
}
// ratings
// .into_iter()
// .zip(exp_scores.into_iter())
// .enumerate()
// .for_each(|(i, (es, exp_sc))| {
// let len = es.len() as f64;
// let score = f64::from(winner == i);
// es.into_iter()
// .for_each(|e| *e += 40.0 * (score - exp_sc) / len);
// })
// }
// Extract set data
@ -135,14 +135,41 @@ fn update_from_set(connection: &Connection, dataset: &str, results: SetData) ->
let players_data = results.teams;
add_players(connection, dataset, &players_data)?;
let mut elos = get_ratings(connection, dataset, &players_data)?;
adjust_ratings(
elos.iter_mut()
.map(|v| v.iter_mut().map(|x| &mut x.1).collect())
.collect(),
results.winner,
);
update_ratings(connection, dataset, elos)
// Singles matches are currently not supported
if players_data.len() != 2 || players_data[0].len() != 1 || players_data[1].len() != 1 {
return Ok(());
}
let mut it = players_data.into_iter();
let player1 = it.next().unwrap()[0].id;
let player2 = it.next().unwrap()[0].id;
let advantage = get_advantage(connection, dataset, player1, player2)
.or_else(|_| hypothetical_advantage(connection, dataset, player1, player2))?;
let adjust = 40.0 * (1.0 - 1.0 / (1.0 + 10_f64.powf(advantage / 400.0)));
if results.winner == 0 {
adjust_advantages(connection, dataset, player1, 0.5 * adjust)?;
adjust_advantages(connection, dataset, player2, -0.5 * adjust)?;
adjust_advantage(
connection,
dataset,
player1,
player2,
-2.0 * (1.0 - 0.5) * adjust,
)?;
} else {
adjust_advantages(connection, dataset, player1, -0.5 * adjust)?;
adjust_advantages(connection, dataset, player2, 0.5 * adjust)?;
adjust_advantage(
connection,
dataset,
player1,
player2,
2.0 * (1.0 - 0.5) * adjust,
)?;
}
Ok(())
}
pub fn sync_dataset(